Bracing for 47
In a few days Donald J. Trump will take the oath of office for the second time and become the 47th President of the United States. For the record, I did my part to prevent that from happening by voting for Vice President Harris. But it happened anyway.
Since the November 5, 2024 election results it has been interesting reading and hearing the post mortems. Our penchant as Democrats for engaging in fratricide never ceases to amaze me. But rather than reacting and emoting, I decided to reflect and consider before sharing any of my thoughts. Now with Trump 2.0 impending, it strikes me as an appropriate time to lend my voice to the fray.
The knowns about President Trump are indeed known. Everything from the impeachments, to the indictments and convictions, to the coarseness of his language, to the boorishness of his behavior at times, are all known. And when I consider some of the attributes of some of the people he intends to surround himself with for his second term, in addition to his enablers in the house and senate, I think America is in for a bumpy ride.
Even so, this is who we lost to. The American people chose this over whatever it is we are currently offering. And this is a sobering thought. At least it should be.
After losing, the natural default posture is to lash out. To blame external factors and other people. And to pose the question, “What is wrong with them, that that chose that over us, over me?” Believe me, I have an acute understanding of this sentiment.
But, “What’s wrong with them?” is exactly the wrong question. It implies the kind of arrogance that is frankly off-putting to so many people. The right question is: “What’s wrong with us?” And that is a very hard question, because it runs counter to human nature.
Asking this question requires a level of humility that most of us are incapable of. But it is the right question to ask never-the-less.
It’s The Economy, Always
As the lead strategist for Bill Clinton’s campaign for President in 1992, political consultant James Carville is credited for coining the phase, “It’s the economy, stupid”. These days some folks regard Mr. Carville as a crotchety old coot who is constantly raging. But not me. He was right then, and he is right now. It is the economy, always.
And I am not talking about the macro economy. I am not talking about charts, graphs and statistics. I am talking about the individual economies of individual people.
While our party is good at promoting policies that positively affect working people, we are lousy at conveying this. Because we tend to highlight other issues our economic message tends to get lost in translation.
As examples: The protection of reproductive freedom is very important. But if you are concerned about the cost of daycare, this issue tends to become a secondary consideration.
Climate change is certainly real, and it is an important issue. But if you are putting gas in your car and you need to pause as you consider the cost of filling it up, this issue tends to become a secondary concern.
Internal threats to democracy are certainly legitimate. But if buying a decent house is out of reach or rents continue to increase or the cost of health insurance seems to be on auto pilot to the moon, this tends to become a secondary concern.
These are just some examples of what so many of our fellow citizens are contending with as part of their daily existence. We need to consistently demonstrate that we get it and that we are decisively engaged in doing something about it.
To be clear, I am not advocating the abandonment of the other issues that are important to us. I am suggesting that our orientation and emphasis be focused on the issues that are important to the people whose support we seek.
It’s the economy, always. And we need to be more deliberate and plain-spoken in communicating our message on this front.
A Breakroom in Covington, Georgia
Years ago, I was working as a management trainee in a production facility in Covington, Georgia. This was during the run up to the 1996 presidential election. One day I was in the breakroom and I overheard some of the employees talking politics. During that discussion one of the press operators said something very simple yet very profound that he posed as a question to his colleagues. His question was, “How can a working man ever support a Republican?” That question has stuck with me ever since.
The gentleman who posed that question was an hourly employee in his mid to late thirties, non-college educated. He was a craftsman plying his trade as a press operator trying to make a living to support his family. And if he didn’t live in Covington he most certainly lived in one of the small towns in the vicinity like Porterdale, or Social Circle, or Rutledge.
His feelings on social issues probably skewed conservatively, although I don’t know that for a fact. But when it came to his personal economic situation, he held the fundamental perception and belief that the Democrats recognized him and had his best interest at heart. Therefore, he could not possibly conceive of voting for a Republican. Oh, how times have changed.
Clearly this is anecdotal. But what the results of this most recent election showed us is that to a very large extent we have lost that guy. And we have probably also lost his wife, his sister, and his brother-in-law as well. Until we embrace this fundamental flaw in the way that we approach those who are similarly situated, we will continue to lose this guy.
No Need to Panic, At Least Not Yet
The good news is that there is no need to hit the panic button. While Vice President Harris was defeated, the overall popular vote margin as well as the margins in the so-called swing states was very narrow. And while the Republicans hold majorities in both houses of congress, those margins are very small.
But it would be a mistake for us to take too much solace in these facts. The operative word is: Majority. Majority means power and control, and this is what matters. The winners get to govern. And our Republican friends could potentially wreak plenty of havoc over the next two to four years.
To the extent that President Trump makes good on his principal commitments to tackle inflation and secure the southern border, he and his party will do well going forward. But the Republicans will probably do what most of us tend to do when we win. Suddenly, we think that we are invincible. Hubris sets it, we overread our mandate, and start doing things that the majority of people who voted for us did not sign up for. It has already started to happen.
Remember in the aftermath of President George W. Bush’s re-election in 2004, strategist Karl Rove began to talk about a so called “Permanent Republican Majority”. Then the Democrats took back the House of Representatives in 2006. And Barack Obama won the Presidential election in 2008. So much for permanent.
The political terrain will be tested later this year in elections for Governor in New Jersey and Virginia. And of course next year in the midterm elections.
But my caution to my party is as follows: If our posture is to count on Republican hubris or the natural swing of the political pendulum to return us to power, that would be a serious mistake. We need to engage in critical self-assessment and make the necessary changes to the way we operate and the way we message.
Political parties exist to win elections. So, let’s regroup and get on with it.
Comentários